SAIF Seminar Series (16)
Topic: SAIF Seminar Series (16)
Time: Friday , 2010-10-08 12:00-08:00
Venue:
Speaker: ,
Affiliations: University of Texas at Austin
Topic:
SAIF Seminar Series (16)
Time:
星期四,2010-10-08 10:30-12:00
Venue:
Room 505, Datong Building, 211 West Huaihai Road, SAIF
Speaker:
Jennifer Huang

Mortgage Complexity and House Price Dynamics
Introduction of the seminar:
Abstract:
Complex mortgages became a popular borrowing instrument during the bullish housing market of the early 2000s but vanished rapidly during the subsequent downturn. These non-traditional loans (interest only, negative amortization, and teaser mortgages) enable households to postpone loan repayment compared to traditional mortgages and hence relax borrowing constraints. We investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of complex contracts and focus on their relation with the level and volatility of house prices. We find that complex mortgages are geographically concentrated in areas of high house price levels and past appreciation. We document that complex mortgages were chosen by relatively high credit quality households seeking to purchase more expensive houses relative to their incomes. Borrowers of complex mortgages experience substantially higher ex post default rates than borrowers of traditional mortgages with similar characteristics. We further find that cities with higher shares of complex mortgages experience a subsequent increase in the cyclicality and volatility of house prices.
 
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