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SAIF’s Hong Kong Symposium to Explore Investment Strategies
Where the global economy and financial industry are heading for after the economic meltdown? How will the earthquake in Japan impact its economy? What if Japan, as the third biggest economy, eases its fiscal policy which may dramatically inflate its economy? Will the American Federal Reserve terminate the EQ2 policy? How will China react to the change in the capital supply chain in Japan?

Where the global economy and financial industry are heading for after the economic meltdown? How will the earthquake in Japan impact its economy? What if Japan, as the third biggest economy, eases its fiscal policy which may dramatically inflate its economy? Will the American Federal Reserve terminate the QE2 policy? How will China react to the change in the capital supply chain in Japan?

These issues, which are of common concern, were all covered in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Forum hosted by SAIF in Hong Kong on March 17. Financial experts and top business analysts from Hong Kong, Shanghai, Japan and Australia were invited to the forum to share their viewpoints with senior management from governments, banks, and securities, investment, accounting, futures and consultancy firms, industries, universities, and the media.

Though confronted with the impact of the devastating quake in Japan, the speakers and audience both expressed cautious optimism about the prospect of Chinese economy and Asian economy.



Prof. CHANG Chun, Executive Director of SAIF, indicated that China is still under immense pressure of inflation. The stringent keynote of macroeconomic control will still prevail, and the regulation of housing market is believed to improve the liquidity of the stock market. He is optimistic about a bullish A-share market in the long run, and the under-valued bank, insurance and other large-cap stocks are worth long-term investment.



Dr. SUN Mingchun, General Manager and Chief Economist of Daiwa SMBC in Greater China, predicted that Chinese economy will continue its upward trend in 2011 and that the inflation will be dying out earliest in this March. The investors will pick up confidence in the market with CPI slowing down its rising pace. The current stringent fiscal policy, therefore, will probably return to a robust fiscal policy, which promises a better market environment to investors.
 
Dr. Dave Fernandez from JP Morgan held that the economic growth in Japan in the first three quarters will slow down but may pick up to 2.0%~4.0% in the fourth quarter. The hike in oil prices also threatens the sound development of macro-economy, while many Asian countries are expected to adopt pro-active financial policy and prudent macro-economic policies to offset the pressure from the rising energy prices and inflation.

Mr. Richard David, CEO and Executive Director of Treasury China Trust, commented that overseas capital is getting increasingly interested in private equity (PE) in RMB with relevant laws being made to regulate the market in China and PE becoming more diversified. Nonetheless, there are also challenges, such as the immaturity of the PE market in China, inadequate legal regulation in this field, and inconvenient foreign exchange settlement and taxation issues for foreign partners. 



The audience was actively involved and had heated discussions with speakers. The forum attracted many local Hong Kong media and financial professionals. Mr. Cho Yan-Chiu, dubbed “The Warren Buffett of Hong Kong”, also made a surprising show up and voiced his views which almost brought the house down. 
  
According to some Hong Kong guests, it is crucial that scholars and professionals from around the world have more opportunities like in this Forum to share updated information and cutting-edge knowledge. The Forum hosted by SAIF proves a successful platform for idea exchanges in the financial realm between mainland China and Hong Kong.


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